School of Earth, Environmental, & Marine Sciences Faculty Publications
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
9-2026
Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) poses escalating risks to the U.S. Gulf Coast, where critical industries, infrastructure, and populations are concentrated in low-lying areas. This study estimates the short- and long-run economic effects of SLR using a panel autoregressive distributed lag-pooled mean group framework applied to county-level data from 26 coastal counties across five Gulf Coast states from 2005 to 2021. Over this period, mean sea level increased by approximately 11 cm on average across counties, with cumulative changes ranging from about 4 cm to over 24 cm and substantial cross-county variation, providing a meaningful empirical setting for identifying economic adjustment. We analyze sectoral outcomes in employment, business establishments, gross domestic product, and wages. Long-run estimates suggest persistent economic declines associated with rising sea levels, particularly in leisure and hospitality, natural resources and mining, and trade, transportation, and utilities. Construction exhibits mixed dynamics, with short-run disruptions followed by increases in establishments consistent with adaptation-related investment. Although some short-run gains emerge following disaster-related activity, these effects do not offset longer-term structural contraction. Wetland coverage is associated with more heterogeneous longer-run adjustment, suggesting that coastal land-cover conditions may shape economic vulnerability. Descriptive evidence indicates more variable exposure and less stable economic performance in disadvantaged and disaster-prone counties. These findings underscore the need for regionally tailored adaptation strategies that integrate ecosystem preservation with climate-resilient infrastructure and long-run economic planning.
Recommended Citation
Hasif, Md Asraf Mahmud, Juhee Lee, and Robin Choudhury. "Sea-level rise and regional economic adjustment on the US Gulf Coast." Environmental Research Communications 8, no. 9 (2026): 095001. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae9d04
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Publication Title
Environmental Research Communications
DOI
10.1088/2515-7620/ae9d04
Comments
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