Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

Authors

Owen B. Toon
Charles G. Bardeen
Alan Robock
Lili Xia
Hans Kristensen
Matthew McKinzie
R. J. Peterson
Cheryl S. Harrison, The University of Texas Rio Grande ValleyFollow
Nicole S. Lovenduski
Richard P. Turco

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2019

Abstract

Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.

Comments

© 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Recommended Citation

Toon, O. B., Bardeen, C. G., Robock, A., Xia, L., Kristensen, H., McKinzie, M., Peterson, R. J., Harrison, C. S., Lovenduski, N. S., & Turco, R. P. (2019). Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe. Science Advances, 5(10), eaay5478. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Publication Title

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.aay5478