Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.
Toon, O. B., Bardeen, C. G., Robock, A., Xia, L., Kristensen, H., McKinzie, M., Peterson, R. J., Harrison, C. S., Lovenduski, N. S., & Turco, R. P. (2019). Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe. Science Advances, 5(10), eaay5478. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay5478
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