Document Type

Article

Publication Date

12-1-2002

Abstract

Using monthly data to bond and equity markets in Mexico from U.S. investors, we search for responses in the vector autoregressions (VARs) - on the real exchange rate and reserves in Mexico - to shocks in U.S. interest rates and to the Mexican M2/Reserves ratio over the years 1988-2001. The ratio M2/Reserves measures the degree of financial vulnerability and brings this literature closer to theoretical constructions. Shocks to U.S. interest rates explain not more than 7.4% of the variance of international reserves and only 5.5% of real exchange rate changes under conventional specifications. Blending M2/Reserves with real exchange rates at the end of the VAR, external shocks explain 12.5% of the variance of real exchange rate one year after the shock and 12.8% of the variance of M2/Reserves. Typically, the responses in Mexico of U.S. interest rate shocks are as expected: higher shocks to U.S. interest rates move Mexican M2/Reserves up, depreciating the real exchange rate in Mexico.

Comments

© 2002, Economics Bulletin.

Publication Title

Economics Bulletin

Included in

Economics Commons

Share

COinS
 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.