School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
8-24-2016
Abstract
A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.
Recommended Citation
Michael G. Tyshenko, Tamer Oraby, Shalu Darshan, Margit Westphal, Maxine C. Croteau, Willy Aspinall, Susie Elsaadany, Daniel Krewski & Neil Cashman (2016) Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease, Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A, 79:16-17, 729-745, DOI: 10.1080/15287394.2016.1174007
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Publication Title
Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A
DOI
10.1080/15287394.2016.1174007
Comments
This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A on 2016 available at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/15287394.2016.1174007