Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

8-24-2016

Abstract

A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.

Comments

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A on 2016 available at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/15287394.2016.1174007

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Publication Title

Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A

DOI

10.1080/15287394.2016.1174007

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