Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

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The identification of periods of price exuberance in equity markets is of great interest to policy makers and financial investors. In this paper, we identify financial bubble periods within the major equity markets in Latin America. We use the recently developed recursive Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods and propose similar recursive procedures based on Phillips-Perron. We find that conditional on bubbles in the S&P 500, there are strong links between bubble episodes across equity markets in Latin America. In addition, the financial bubble periods in Latin America begin earlier and last longer than bubble periods in the United States during the 2008 financial crisis. Price bubbles were identified prior to the establishment of the Integrated Latin American Market (MILA).


•We use the GSADF to identify bubbles in Latin American equity markets.
•We proposed a new recursive procedure based on Phillips-Perron to identify bubbles.
•We find price bubbles in five Latin American markets prior to the 2008 crisis.
•We identify periods of price exuberance immediately prior to the start of the MILA.
•We find strong links between bubble episodes across equity markets.


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Publication Title

Emerging Markets Review



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Finance Commons



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