Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-2018

Abstract

In this paper we test for the existence of single and multiple episodes of explosive behavior in three energy sector indices (crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas) and five energy sector spot prices (West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, heating oil, natural gas, and jet fuel). The results from the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Generalized SADF tests provide strong statistical evidence of explosive behavior in all of our energy series. A simple theoretical framework of commodity pricing allows us to understand the assumptions to interpret explosive behavior as bubbles. By constructing implied convenience yields using futures prices we test the key assumption and we are able to identify the beginning and the end of bubble periods for the WTI, Brent, heating oil, and natural gas spot prices.

Comments

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Original published article available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.007

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

First Page

418

Last Page

429

Publication Title

Energy Economics

DOI

10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.007

Included in

Finance Commons

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