Health & Biomedical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
7-31-2025
Abstract
Background: Falls are a global public health issue with a heavy disease and socioeconomic burden, with an increasing number of risky people. The aim of this study is to explore the global disease burden of falls and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and management of falls.
Methods: This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) to analyse global, regional, and national temporal trends in falls. An age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyse data from 1990 to 2021, with global predictions made through 2046.
Findings: Although the falls mortality of all age groups has shown a slight decline globally over the past three decades (Net drift = 0.84%, 95% CI: −0.92, −0.76), the mortality varying across regional and intra-regional levels by sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, gender and older adults have not substantially decreased (local drift above 75 years: >0). The APC model reveals that falls mortality has increased with age, especially after the age of 55 years. The period effects shows an overall downward trend (Rate Ratio: 1.08–0.87). The cohort effect shows a trend of increasing first (RR: 1.02–1.18) and then decreasing (RR: 1.18–0.40). The marked heterogeneity in falls mortality is across higher-SDI regions. Population aging is identified as the primary contributor to changes in global falls mortality rates.
Conclusion: Falls among older adults remain a persistent global issue, with significant regional and intra-regional disparities in falls mortality. These findings underscore the urgent need for age- and region-specific interventions to address this public health challenge.
Recommended Citation
Meng, J., Jiang, H., Zhao, H., Yang, H., Zeng, Y., Sun, C., ... & Jiang, L. (2025). Global, regional, and national time trends in falls and their predictions: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Frontiers in Public Health, 13, 1598507. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1598507
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Publication Title
Frontiers in Public Health
DOI
10.3389/fpubh.2025.1598507
Comments
© 2025 Jiang, Sun, Yang, Li, Jiang, Zhao, Zeng, Sun, Xu, Lai and Meng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.