Analysis of intervention effectiveness using early outbreak transmission dynamics to guide future pandemic management and decision-making in Kuwait

Authors

Michael G. Tyshenko
Tamer Oraby, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
Joseph C. Longenecker
Harri Vainio
Janvier Gasana
Walid Q. Alali
Mohammad AlSeaidan
Susie ElSaadany
Mustafa Al-Zoughool

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

2021

Abstract

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a World Health Organization designated pandemic that can result in severe symptoms and death that disproportionately affects older patients or those with comorbidities. Kuwait reported its first imported cases of COVID-19 on February 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the first three months of community transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important guidance for decision-making when dealing with future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave management. The analysis of intervention scenarios can help to evaluate the possible impacts of various outbreak control measures going forward which aim to reduce the effective reproduction number during the initial outbreak wave. Herein we use a modified susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infectious-removed (SEAIR) transmission model to estimate the outbreak dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Kuwait. We fit case data from the first 96 days in the model to estimate the effective reproduction number and used Google mobility data to refine community contact matrices. The SEAIR modelled scenarios allow for the analysis of various interventions to determine their effectiveness. The model can help inform future pandemic wave management, not only in Kuwait but for other countries as well.

Comments

© 2021 The Authors.

Recommended Citation

Tyshenko, M. G., Oraby, T., Longenecker, J., Vainio, H., Gasana, J., Alali, W. Q., AlSeaidan, M., ElSaadany, S., & Al-Zoughool, M. (2021). Analysis of intervention effectiveness using early outbreak transmission dynamics to guide future pandemic management and decision-making in Kuwait. Infectious Disease Modelling, 6, 693–705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.003

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Publication Title

Infectious Disease Modelling

DOI

10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.003