Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?

Authors

Mustafa Al-Zoughool
Tamer Oraby, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
Harri Vainio
Janvier Gasana
Joseph C. Longenecker
Walid Al Ali
Mohammad AlSeaidan
Susie Elsaadany
Michael G. Tyshenko

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-8-2022

Abstract

Background

Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations.

Methods

The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities.

Results

The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations.

Conclusions

In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.

Comments

Copyright © 2022, The Author(s)

Recommended Citation

Al-Zoughool, M., Oraby, T., Vainio, H. et al. Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?. Arch Public Health 80, 22 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-021-00778-y

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Publication Title

Archives of Public Health

DOI

10.1186/s13690-021-00778-y