Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model

Authors

Tamer Oraby, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
Michael G. Tyshenko
Hanan H. Balkhy
Yasar Tasnif
Adriana Quiroz-Gaspar, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
Zeinab Mohamed, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
Ayesha Araya
Susie Elsaadany
Eman Al-Mazroa
Mohammed A. Alhelail
Yaseen M. Arabi
Mustafa Al-Zoughool

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

4-2020

Abstract

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging zoonotic coronavirus that has a tendency to cause significant healthcare outbreaks among patients with serious comorbidities. We analyzed hospital data from the MERS-CoV outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) ward transmission model. The SEIR compartmental model considers several areas within the hospital where transmission occurred. We use a system of ordinary differential equations that incorporates the following units: emergency department (ED), out-patient clinic, intensive care unit, and hospital wards, where each area has its own carrying capacity and distinguishes the transmission by three individuals in the hospital: patients, health care workers (HCW), or mobile health care workers. The emergency department, as parameterized has a large influence over the epidemic size for both patients and health care workers. Trend of the basic reproduction number (R₀), which reached a maximum of 1.39 at the peak of the epidemic and declined to 0.92 towards the end, shows that until added hospital controls are introduced, the outbreak would continue with sustained transmission between wards. Transmission rates where highest in the ED, and mobile HCWs were responsible for large part of the outbreak.

Comments

Original published version available at https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082936

Recommended Citation

Oraby, Tamer, Michael G. Tyshenko, Hanan H. Balkhy, Yasar Tasnif, Adriana Quiroz-Gaspar, Zeinab Mohamed, Ayesha Araya, et al. 2020. “Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17 (8): 2936. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082936.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Publication Title

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

DOI

10.3390/ijerph17082936