Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Mind the Gap? Political Advertisements and Congressional Election Results

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

8-2012

Abstract

Do political television advertisements influence congressional election results? We test a hypothesis that candidates increase their vote share by increasing their advertisement airings relative to their opponent’s airings (i.e., ‘‘mind the gap’’). Using aggregate advertising data over three election cycles, we employ a two-stage least squares estimation with a rank-order instrumental variable, finding that the advertisement gap explains shifts in vote share after controlling for variables standard to congressional election modeling and advertisement volume. This methodological approach mitigates the endogenous relationship between advertisement airings and election results.

Comments

Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Publication Title

Journal of Political Marketing

DOI

10.1080/15377857.2012.703909

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