Mind the Gap? Political Advertisements and Congressional Election Results
Do political television advertisements influence congressional election results? We test a hypothesis that candidates increase their vote share by increasing their advertisement airings relative to their opponent’s airings (i.e., ‘‘mind the gap’’). Using aggregate advertising data over three election cycles, we employ a two-stage least squares estimation with a rank-order instrumental variable, finding that the advertisement gap explains shifts in vote share after controlling for variables standard to congressional election modeling and advertisement volume. This methodological approach mitigates the endogenous relationship between advertisement airings and election results.
Jones, Michael D., and Paul D. Jorgensen. "Mind the Gap? Political Advertisements and Congressional Election Results." Journal of Political Marketing 11.3 (2012): 165-188. https://doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2012.703909
Journal of Political Marketing