Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
Structural adjustment, economic performance, and electoral volatility in presidential elections in Latin America
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2024
Abstract
Drawing upon the Latin American Presidential and Legislative Elections database and our own original data set, we assess the effects of structural adjustment and other economic factors on presidential electoral volatility in 24 Latin American countries in 1982–2016. The results of our study indicate that both structural adjustment and inflation have a positive association with Type B presidential electoral volatility (the volatility generated from changes in the vote shares of established parties). Economic growth appears to have only a weak negative association with overall presidential electoral volatility. Type A presidential electoral volatility (the volatility associated with the rise of new parties) is mostly determined by demographic factors and the electoral system for the presidency. As with legislative volatility in Latin America, Africa, and postcommunist Europe, explaining stable party presidential volatility appears more challenging than explaining party replacement presidential volatility. Overall, several of the findings about legislative volatility are echoed in this study, but presidential electoral volatility is notably higher than legislative volatility in Latin America.
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Aprovechando la base de datos de Elecciones Latinoamericanas Presidenciales y Legislativas y nuestros propios datos, evaluamos los efectos del ajuste estructural y de otros factores económicos en la volatilidad electoral presidencial en 24 países latinoamericanos de 1982 a 2016. Los resultados de nuestro estudio indican que tanto el ajuste estructural como la inflación se asocian de manera positiva con la volatilidad electoral presidencial de tipo B (la que se genera de cambios en distribuciones de votos de los partidos establecidos). El crecimiento económico parece asociarse solo de manera débil con la volatilidad electoral presidencial en general. La volatilidad electoral presidencial de tipo A (la volatilidad asociada con el surgimiento de nuevos partidos) está determinada principalmente por factores demográficos y el sistema electoral para la presidencia. Al igual que ocurre con la volatilidad legislativa en América Latina, África y la Europa poscomunista, explicar la volatilidad presidencial de un partido estable parece más difícil que explicar la volatilidad presidencial por reemplazo de partido. En general, este estudio hace eco de varios de los hallazgos reportados por los estudios sobre la volatilidad legislativa, aunque la volatilidad electoral presidencial es notablemente mayor que la volatilidad legislativa en América Latina.
Recommended Citation
Tuman, J. P., Kuenzi, M., & Erlingsson, H. B. (2024). Structural adjustment, economic performance, and electoral volatility in presidential elections in Latin America. Latin American Policy, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1111/lamp.12336
Publication Title
Latin American Policy
DOI
10.1111/lamp.12336
Comments
© 2024 Policy Studies Organization.
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