School of Medicine Publications
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
5-13-2026
Abstract
Global reporting of obesity is commonly based on comparisons over multiple decades1 and lacks a granular and systematic analysis of its dynamics. We used 4,050 population-based studies with measured height and weight data on 232 million participants to assess the worldwide dynamics of obesity from 1980 to 2024. The rise in obesity decelerated in school-aged children and adolescents throughout the 1990s in many high-income countries, and subsequently plateaued in most at age-standardized prevalences spanning 20 percentage points, from 3–4% for girls in Japan, Denmark and France to 23% for boys in the USA. There were indications of a small decline in obesity in children and adolescents in some high-income western countries (for example, Italy, Portugal and France) since the 2000s. Similar trends were seen in some countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In adults, the rise in obesity slowed down in high-income western countries about a decade after children, followed by a plateau or possibly a small reversal of the rise in some countries (for example, Spain). In most low-income and middle-income countries, the annual absolute change in prevalence has remained stable or increased over time, even though prevalence has surpassed that of high-income countries. These highly varied dynamics suggest that the social, economic and technological trends that influence the availability, affordability and use of different foods may have helped control the rise in obesity in high-income countries, but require policy interventions in low-income and middle-income countries.
Recommended Citation
Zhou, B., Phelps, N. H., Galeazzi, A., O’Driscoll, O. N., Bennett, J. E., Jain, L., Brisis, Y. D. D., Barradas-Pires, A., Deo, F., Stevens, G. A., Kontis, V., Paciorek, C. J., Carrillo-Larco, R. M., Mishra, A., Fan, Y., Rodriguez-Martinez, A., Nath, V., Rayner, A. W., Zouein, A., … NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). (2026). Obesity rise plateaus in developed nations and accelerates in developing nations. Nature, 653(8114), 510–518. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10383-0
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Publication Title
Nature
DOI
10.1038/s41586-026-10383-0
Academic Level
faculty
Mentor/PI Department
Neuroscience
Comments
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made.