School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
8-2024
Abstract
We present a framework for strategic dam planning under uncertainty, which includes GHG emissions mitigation as a novel objective. We focus on the Mekong River Basin, a fast‐developing region heavily relying on river‐derived ecosystem services. We employ a multi‐objective evolutionary algorithm to identify strategic dam portfolios for different hydropower expansion targets, using process‐related and statistical models to derive indicators of sediment supply disruption and GHG emissions. We introduce a robust optimization approach that explores variations in optimal portfolio compositions for more than 5,000 state‐of‐ the‐world configurations, regarding sediment origins and trapping and GHG emissions. Thus, we can rank dam projects' attractiveness based on their frequency of inclusion in optimal portfolios and explore how uncertainty affects these rankings. Our results suggest that developing dams in the upper Mekong would be a more robust option for near‐term development than, for example, the lower Mekong and its tributaries, for both environmental and energy objectives. Our work presents a novel approach to better understand the basin‐scale cumulative impacts of dam development in high‐uncertainty, data‐scarce contexts like the Mekong Basin.
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Plain Language Summary: Hydropower is considered an important energy source to meet many climate mitigation targets. Its negative impacts are however often underestimated, including the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) from reservoirs. This study introduces a framework for planning dams strategically in the Mekong River Basin, a region heavily dependent on river‐related services. The framework considers uncertainties and incorporates greenhouse gas emissions mitigation and sediment transport disruption as new objectives. Using a multi‐objective evolutionary algorithm, the research identifies optimal dam portfolios for different hydropower expansion goals. To consider uncertainties in the results, the analysis employs a robust optimization approach to assess over 5,000 state‐of‐the‐world configurations. Results indicate that developing dams in the upper Mekong is a more robust option for both environmental and energy goals in the near term. These conclusions showcase the approach's usefulness in understanding dams' cumulative impacts in data‐ scarce and uncertain contexts like the Mekong Basin.
Recommended Citation
Tangi, M., R. Schmitt, R. Almeida, S. Bossi, A. Flecker, F. Sala, and A. Castelletti. "Robust hydropower planning balances energy generation, carbon emissions and sediment connectivity in the Mekong River Basin." Earth's Future 12, no. 8 (2024): e2023EF003647. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003647
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Publication Title
Earth's Future
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003647
Comments
© 2024. The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.