Theses and Dissertations

Date of Award

5-2017

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Mathematics

First Advisor

Dr. Tamer Oraby

Second Advisor

Dr. Santanu Chakraborty

Third Advisor

Dr. Sergey Grigorian

Abstract

This thesis concerns about the analysis and modeling of spread of an infectious disease inside a hospital. We begin from the basic knowledge of the simple models: SIR and SEIR, to show an appropriate understanding of the epidemic dynamic process. We consider the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (MERS-CoV), in Saudi Arabia, to introduce MERS-CoV SEIR ward model by developing different systems of equations in each ward (unit). We use the Next Generation Matrix method to calculate the basic reproduction number R0. Simulations of different scenarios are done using different combination of parameters.

To model MERS-CoV we established a system of equations from sketch of wards model of a hospital. We divide it into five wards where individuals can travel from one unit to the other and interact with the environment. We consider the following units: Waiting room/Reception (WR), Intensive Care Unit (ICU), Hemodialysis (HD), and HospitalWards. Each ward has its own carrying capacity which represents the maximum number of patients that can be admitted. We have three kinds of agents: Patients (P), Health Care Workers (HCW), and Mobile HCW.

Here, we study the disease free equilibrium and calculate their values by using Matlab codes to obtain the basic reproduction number.

Comments

Copyright 2017 Adriana Quiroz. All Rights Reserved.

https://www.proquest.com/dissertations-theses/mathematical-modeling-mers-cov-nosocomial/docview/1938664059/se-2?accountid=7119

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