Date of Award
Master of Science (MS)
Dr. Tamer Oraby
Dr. Santanu Chakraborty
Dr. Sergey Grigorian
This thesis concerns about the analysis and modeling of spread of an infectious disease inside a hospital. We begin from the basic knowledge of the simple models: SIR and SEIR, to show an appropriate understanding of the epidemic dynamic process. We consider the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (MERS-CoV), in Saudi Arabia, to introduce MERS-CoV SEIR ward model by developing different systems of equations in each ward (unit). We use the Next Generation Matrix method to calculate the basic reproduction number R0. Simulations of different scenarios are done using different combination of parameters.
To model MERS-CoV we established a system of equations from sketch of wards model of a hospital. We divide it into five wards where individuals can travel from one unit to the other and interact with the environment. We consider the following units: Waiting room/Reception (WR), Intensive Care Unit (ICU), Hemodialysis (HD), and HospitalWards. Each ward has its own carrying capacity which represents the maximum number of patients that can be admitted. We have three kinds of agents: Patients (P), Health Care Workers (HCW), and Mobile HCW.
Here, we study the disease free equilibrium and calculate their values by using Matlab codes to obtain the basic reproduction number.
Quiroz, Adriana, "Mathematical Modeling of MERS-CoV Nosocomial Epidemic" (2017). Theses and Dissertations - UTRGV. 185.